This hobby is dead.

[kyrre]

M and M Hobby in Houston has been taken over by new owners. They seem like a busy couple, keen to keep the shop alive, with focus on RC. The plastic was more shelf-fillers, it appeared. I asked him about his take on plastic and he said the hobby would be dead in 10-15 years time. No youngsters buy plastic.

While I'm typing out a letter to Trumpeter to warn them about their fate I couldn't help but think that with the prices the shop keeps no wonder he's not getting any sales. I left with some paints.

[gnat]

Think your man is right. But what about elsewhere on the globe.

Anyone out there know about that?

Gnat

[Mofo]

Local shops dead? Probably. Or at least, an awful lot of them. On-line? Doubt it.

I interviewed all the local shop owners here last year. Most complained about the on-line world taking a big bite out of their sales. Also: changes/consolidation in distributors and the increase in hobby lines. There used to be a handful of lines carried by several different distributors around the world, which meant competitive pricing (mostly, order a relatively small amount, get free shipping, order more, get % discounts) AND that you could place a few, big-money orders to bulk up your inventory. Now, there's fewer distributors and less competition, but more lines with little cross-over. So they're spending a little here, a little there, without the benefits and incentives of the past.

It's jacked the operating costs way up for brick and mortars, who will by definition will always have a more limited market.

And with their rising costs, the on-line world has exploded. Stores with low overhead, large sales, able to buy in massive quantities and operate on smaller margins. They're not just competing with the guy across town, but the guy around the world. Who is dealing with different distributors, who are using different markups - how can they compete when the RETAIL price from a guy in Hong Kong is lower than the WHOLESALE price in North America? Customers are more savvy, and buy where specific products are cheapest - Hong Kong is great for Hasegawa, but sucks for Revell.

And it's the same in most of the related hobbies. R/C. Trains. Slot cars. Die cast.

Another interesting observation: the more successful the store was, the more introverted the owners' outlook. The ones that were struggling railed against the local competition, blamed shifting tastes, web stores and the economy. "We're in trouble, and it's all because of these changes." The ones that were successful (a couple of stores have opened second locations recently) mentioned various difficulties, but were more concerned with their own shop. "Things are changing, so we've got to be better than ever."

My guess? You'll see a lot of smaller hobby shops close in the next decade. Maybe 25 - 30%. Maybe 50%. Model-only stores probably won't be sustainable, unless the owner has dirt-cheap rent, or does it just for fun. The ones that stay will be more diversified, more flexible, and more willing to compete with on-line shops. Probably a relatively limited selection (primarily mainstream manufacturers, not a lot of small names). But they won't disappear entirely. On-line will become ubiquitous, and likely where the smaller companies thrive (the Taranguses and Mengs of the world). And I suspect we'll see a massive uptick in small manufacturers as production costs drop and production methods change.

[lazycat]

"hobby would be dead in 10-15 years time"
I have enough kits to take me beyond that time

[kyrre]

With the plethora of kits coming out just about every month I don't think the hobby is dying as such. It's shifting, it may not be a kids' hobby any more, but it's certainly not ending any time soon. The living standard is getting better all over the world and with that there's more spare time which can be used for useless hobbies. Enter plastic modelling.

[lazycat]

I agree with Kyrre.
New kits are more complicated (and pricey), 1/32 scale is gaining momentum.
Imagine, if for most of the day you work looking at the computer screen - will be that a way to relax after work?
The former "under dogs" - Czech companies are improving quality to the point to compete with well established manufacturers and are aiming at 1/72 scale. From $10.00 - $19.00 price jumped to about $30.00 for single engine props. Still somebody is BUYING it!
Airfix is aiming at lowest price but is getting more sophisticated!

Kids will spend money on computer related entertainment but people who use them 24/7 will look in to different way to relax. Hobby is getting older, more sophisticated and wealthier part of population.

[OilfieldTiger]

The traditional shop may be dying, but every time I look (either online or in-store), there are more and more, and better, products than ever.

Looked at a couple of the new Airfix 1/72 kits last week - superb value for $11. That sort of money buys very little anywhere, and looks to me to be exceptional value. When I look at the cost of Lego and Playmobil (and they're for the kids, right?), then model kits really are pocket change.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I know my boy will be interested in model kits (to build himself) in another couple of years (he's only 4 now).

Cheers,

Tim

[ww2nut]

I really think Airfix is onto something with their newest products. I'm building the Spit Mk.22 now and recently finished their P-51D and enjoyed both builds. The beginner and advanced modeler can both get a good value from these kits. At about $7 a kit there's just nothing out there that compares from a value point of view IMHO. When you look at Squadron's and other sites you see these and their A-4B, Bf 109E, Spitfire MK I/II all sold out. Clearly they are hitting a demand that is out there and probably will be for the foreseeable future.

Joe